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This week's phenol Market Weekly Report

last week, as the first week after the Spring Festival holiday, domestic phenol manufacturers raised their ex factory prices continuously under the condition of high external market and good sales, the market gradually warmed up, the quotation rose steadily, and the downstream demand in various regions was in the recovery period. However, the demand has not improved significantly, the transaction situation is still general, the port market is not significantly rising, traders are mainly stable and rational in operation, and the overall market trading volume is not significantly enlarged

I. for the manufacturers,

Yanshan Petrochemical, the ex factory price is 9100 ~ 9170 yuan/ton, an increase of 320 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. The 260000 ton/year unit production is normal and the sales are good; Gaoqiao Petrochemical, the ex factory price is 9150 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. The 320000 ton/year unit production is normal and sales are good; Jilin Petrochemical, with an ex factory price of 9110 yuan/ton, experienced an explosion in its biphenyl plant on November 13 last year. Although the phenol ketone unit was undamaged, it was still in shutdown, and the start-up time could not be determined, and there was no export at present; Ha Huayu, the ex factory price is 9400 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. The production of 120000 tons/year device is normal, and the sales are stable; Tomorrow technology, the ex factory price is 90 ~ 9400 yuan/ton (the high-end is the local retail price), an increase of 200 yuan/ton compared with the previous period, the operating rate of the device remains at 50%, and the product sales are mainly contract goods

II. Domestic market

East China. Last week, the market was mainly stable. At the beginning of the week, under the influence of the first increase in the factory price of Gaoqiao Petrochemical after the holiday, the market quotation rose to 9300 yuan/ton, and the mainstream transaction was 9300 yuan/ton; In the later period, the market remained stable, the port manufacturers increased again, and the traders operated cautiously. Some tentative quotations were increased to 9400 yuan/ton, but the actual transaction remained at 9300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of the week; At present, downstream manufacturers are still dominated by digesting pre holiday inventory, middlemen are not enthusiastic about receiving goods, and the trading volume is still not enlarged. Market participants have a relatively calm mentality, mainly focusing on stabilizing the market, and their operations are more rational. Supported by the high level of the outer market and the maintenance of some foreign manufacturers, they are optimistic

South China. Last week, the market operated synchronously with the East China market, and the market was mainly stable. At the beginning of the week, the market rose to 9500 ~ 9700 yuan/ton under the influence of the factory price increase and the domestic market rise; In the later stage, the market remained basically stable. The mainstream transaction in Guangzhou was 9700 yuan/ton, some transactions could be 9800 yuan/ton, the mainstream transaction in Fuzhou was about 9500 yuan/ton, and the mainstream transaction in Sanming was 9550 ~ 9600 yuan/ton. The downstream demand has not been fully started, and the market transaction is still general. Traders have a good mentality and are optimistic about the recent market

North China. Last week, the market was affected by the continuous rise in the ex factory prices of local manufacturers. The market speculation gradually rose and the market continued to rise. By the weekend, the mainstream transactions rose to 9450 ~ 9500 yuan/ton, and some transactions were as high as 9600 yuan/ton. The market speculation atmosphere was strong, the market continued to rise, and the traders' mentality was good; With the gradual commencement of downstream manufacturers, the enthusiasm for receiving goods has also increased, the market atmosphere is good, the transaction situation has improved, and the trading volume is larger than that in the early stage. It is rumored that local manufacturers still have the intention to raise prices. Traders have a good mentality and say that the market still has room to rise

central China. Last week, affected by the continuous upward adjustment of domestic phenol manufacturers and the continuous rise of the market, the phenol Market in Central China followed closely. The phenol Market in Hunan is rising. Now the mainstream quotation is 9600 ~ 9700 yuan/ton, the mainstream transaction is 9650 ~ 9700 yuan/ton, and the mainstream transaction in Henan is 9600 yuan/ton. The downstream manufacturers gradually resume construction, and the inquiry for goods is more active and the transaction is acceptable; The phenol Market in Shandong also rose correspondingly, and the port tank out price rose to about 9800 yuan/ton. Although the Chinese government announced this month that the growth rate of the secondary industry slowed down, downstream manufacturers began to start work gradually, and traders shipped well. Market participants said that with the gradual start-up demand of downstream manufacturers will be amplified, the market may still rise under the influence of the strong external market and the maintenance of some foreign devices

III. in terms of external quotation

recently, the external quotation of phenol in Asia is still high, with the market price of US $880 ~ 920/ton (CFR China). In fact, the low price represents the buyer's intended price for foreign goods, and the high price represents the seller's intended price for foreign goods. There is a lack of firm offer in the market, and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market. In order to reduce the cost pressure caused by raw materials, the Asia Pacific phenol suppliers successively issued the first contract price before the festival: the contract price of phenol in Mitsui, Japan in February was $965/ton (CFR China/Northeast Asia); The contract price of phenol of Formosa chemical in February was 940 US dollars/ton (CFR China/Northeast Asia); The contract price of phenol in Kumho, South Korea, in February was 950 US dollars/ton (CFR China/Northeast Asia)

IV. in the upstream aspect,

the results of equipment measurement are inaccurate

pure benzene. Last week, due to the rise in freight, the arbitrage window of Meiya pure benzene narrowed, and the shipping freight in the second month of February and the first month of March was $80-90/ton. On Thursday, the number of ships in the second month of March and April increased, which made the negotiation of Meiya arbitrage traders on shipping in April next week active again. The ship owners gave up the ports in Southeast Asia to support South Korea M. manual control mode: the machine platform is equipped with manual control board and American arbitrage transportation. It is reported that there are 24000 tons of Formosa 9 and 6000 tons of Formosa 7 in Taiwan, which are about to be shipped to the United States; 20000 tons of goods are about to be shipped to the United States, and 11500 tons of goods are shipped in stock. It is reported that there are 8000 tons of goods from Nantong, China to the United States. The price in the U.S. market in April and may is 287 ~ 291 cents/gallon and 289 ~ 293 cents/gallon; Equivalent to 860 ~ 871 USD/ton FOB and 865 ~ 877 USD/ton FOB. The spot freight of South Korea and the United States is $80 ~ 85/ton, the arbitrage transaction price of goods in March is $780/ton FOB South Korea, and noble offers $760/ton FOB Singapore for any shipping date in March. In March, the transaction was $785/ton FOB South Korea, and BP sold it to shell. The second order is FOB Korea at $795/ton in March and April. China's domestic market is strong, and traders offer 7500 yuan/ton for canning. The price of China's domestic market rose sharply after the holiday, and the ex factory price of refineries rose by 200 ~ 300 yuan/ton. It is reported that the inventory of Nantong port has been reduced to 9000 tons. After that, the hot goods in the international market tended to calm down for half a week, and the transaction price remained at the level of 7200 ~ 7300 yuan/ton. At present, the manufacturers' shipments are mainly contract goods, and the purchase volume of traders has shrunk significantly. Some traders believe that the short-term future market rise is weak. Experts believe that: due to the reduction of refinery inventory and the strong domestic pure benzene market, traders offer 7500 yuan/ton for canning out; However, the market atmosphere was affected by the inventory of crude oil, naphtha, toluene and pure benzene in South Korea. Due to the centralized maintenance of a large number of styrene and phenol plants in Asia in the first quarter, which affected the consumption of raw phenol, coupled with the surge and over speed in the early stage, the industry insiders were generally bearish about the future market. It is expected that the possibility of oscillation and consolidation in the near future is large, and the long-term outlook is stable, moderate and slightly downward

propylene. After the festival, the domestic propylene market opened in a calm manner. At the beginning of the week, the market fluctuated little, the trend was stable, and the quotation was static and dynamic. Many downstream manufacturers were still in the holiday period, and most buyers and sellers had a heavy wait-and-see mentality; In the middle of the week, with the gradual commencement of downstream enterprises, the propylene market showed a steady upward trend, and the transaction atmosphere was stable; The weekend stabilized and prices were calm. The mainstream price in Shandong is 9550 ~ 9700 yuan/ton, basically unchanged; All manufacturers in North China quote steadily, with the mainstream price of 8800 ~ 9500 yuan/ton, and the low-end price is the mutual supply price; In Northwest China, due to the fact that Ningxia pagoda plant has not been started, Lanzhou Petrochemical products are all for their own use, and the market resources are relatively limited. Xianyang Auxiliary Factory raised the ex factory price from 150 yuan/ton to 8900 yuan/ton at the weekend. Propylene manufacturers are optimistic about the market trend, but the overall atmosphere of the downstream polypropylene market is poor, and the enthusiasm to enter the market is generally not high. It is expected that the market will continue to be stable in the future

v. downstream market

bisphenol A. Last week, the domestic bisphenol a market was supported by the high and strong external market. Traders pushed up more actively, and the market trend was stable and rising. By the weekend, the mainstream quotation in East China was 12600 ~ 12700 yuan/ton, and the mainstream transaction was about 12500 yuan/ton, of which the mainstream transaction in Huangshan was 12500 ~ 12600 yuan/ton; Downstream epoxy resin manufacturers started gradually, but most of them were mainly to digest pre holiday inventory, with little intention to receive goods, mainly on the sidelines, with few transactions. Market participants said that the current high quotation of the external market is firmly at 1350 US dollars/ton. With the recovery of downstream construction, the early inventory of manufacturers will be gradually digested, and there will be replenishment. The reduction of the unit operating rate of some foreign manufacturers will also give traders a strong psychological support, and it is expected that the recent market will still be dominated by stable growth

VI. outlook

recently, the domestic phenol market has continued to rise driven by the continuous rise of the manufacturer, while the port market is more cautious and rational. At present, the downstream demand of the domestic phenol Market is still gradually recovering. After the improvement of the shipment volume after the holiday and the release of inventory pressure, under the influence of the continuous high external market and the upcoming overhaul of some phenol plants abroad from February to April, it is not ruled out that the factory price may continue to rise. With the increase of the operating rate, the downstream manufacturers will gradually digest the pre holiday inventory. Under the influence of the good mentality of traders, The market is likely to rise steadily

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